Increased Humidity Improved Desert Riparian Ecosystems in the Tarim River Basin, Northwest China, from 1990 to 2020

Land use and land cover change (LULCC), along with the conversion of natural ecosystem into farmland, poses significant ecological challenges for desert riparian ecosystems. The Tarim River Basin (TRB), home to world’s largest most densely distributed well-preserved ecosystem, remains exceptionally susceptible climate change. However, our understanding role climatic factors (mean annual temperature (MAT); mean during warmest month (MWMT); relative humidity in September, October, November (RH_SON); heat–moisture index (AHM)) driving pattern changes these ecosystems limited. To address this gap, we employed a transfer matrix approach coupled geographically weighted regression models conduct an extensive analysis LULCC trends their within TRB from 1990 2020. 30-year dataset on provided invaluable insights, revealing that proliferation farmland shrubberies has precipitated decline arbor forests grassland expanses. Furthermore, expansion resulted heightened fragmentation, particularly notable between 2005 2010. Our assessment indicates artificial are gradually transitioning back states, encompassing 8.24% total area, chiefly attributed expanding shrubbery regions. Additionally, in-depth scrutiny impacts structure unveiled moisture exerts pronounced influence patterns, followed by air content growing season, while relatively lesser impact. Overall, study contributes realization SDG 13 (Climate Action) 15 (Life Land) informing conservation efforts sustainable management practices dryland